Change Drives Technology

I read an astoundingly gormless blog post this morning: the author was expounding on the notion that technology drives change that transforms a culture, and she used the example of the Roman roads, insisting that the Roman Empire was able to expand to encompass all of Europe because there were roads over which they could move their armies and supplies. Without such a system of roads, the Romans would never have been able to build such a vast empire. Given the context of the post, this was not a misstatement, but a complete misinterpretation of historical fact.

Certainly, the road systems helped Rome maintain control: but it's far more plausible (and historically accurate) to suggest that the Roman empire expanded, then the roads were built. They may have helped Rome to maintain the lands it had conquered, and certainly facilitated the movement of men and materiel to its borders - but they did not exist beforehand: they did not enable Rome to expand, but were needed after Rome had already expanded.

In the context of the argument, and discussion of the topic in general, it is clear that technology does not drive change ... change drives technology.

Until a need exists, technology is of little value - it is a solution in search of a problem - and unless a need arises, the technology to serve that need is of no value at all. Arguably, technology can help people to find a way to do something they didn't think was possible, but it takes a whole lot of marketing dollars to teach them about the "needs" they do not recognize that they have.

The notion that "technology drives change" was one of the leading factors in the dot-com crash of a decade ago, and it's clear (from that blog post, and many others that take as premise the same notion in more subtle ways) that the lesson has not been entirely learned: technology that gives people a way to do something that they do not need to do is not likely to succeed, or to become transformational.

The transformation must come first, and technology will follow, to address the problems and needs that arise as a result of the transformation.

This is an important principle to keep in mind when considering the hype that surrounds any new development in technology: what existing need does it serve? Where there is a straightforward answer, the technology is likely to succeed. Where the promoters take the tactic of suggesting what new things it enables a person to do, without reference to their existing needs, it likely will not.