Think Twice

I recently read Michael Mauboussin's book that explores common flaws in decision-making processes: how otherwise intelligent people can make catastrophic decisions because they fall into patterns of thinking that defy common sense.   It's all to common, and I do wonder if a single book, especially one as random and disparate as this one, is a solution to the problem - but it is at the least a good start.

In general, the problem is decision-makers rush headlong into making the decision, without a moment's pause to consider how the decision will be made.  Solving problems and making decisions are handled in the same manner as most activities, they immediately fall into the pattern that has succeeded in the past, without considering whether the techniques are appropriate to the situation at hand.   As such, they set to work with the wrong tools, and the results are unsatisfactory.

Aside of that, there are problems with information-gathering: it is much more selective than most would care to admit.   We have certain expectations and are keen on information that is in line with what we anticipate, but dismiss anything that doesn't fit as being irrelevant, or focus or scope so tightly that we a fail to consider the breadth of relevant factors and possible outcomes.

Last are the logical processes themselves - practices such as inductive reasoning, reductive bias, pattern bias, and social influences that lead us to apply (and justify the application of) entirely irrational decision-making processes.

The author's solution to the problem can be distilled into a simple process of pausing to consider each of these factors, not merely in making a decision, but in deciding what steps to take and which tactics to employ in the decision-making process.  It sounds simple, perhaps simplistic, but also quite reasonable, and it seems worthwhile to  consider as an option for improving the overall process and outcome.