Recap
The previous post considered that fashion, like practical behavior, is based on the desire to achieve a result that exceeds the effort put into achieving it. Because the goal of fashion is esteem (to be admired, or to avoid ridicule) there is not an objective measurement of its effectiveness - each person decides from himself what is fashionable. However, because the goal is to make an impression on others, our prediction of the opinions of others figures highly into the choices we make in regard to fashion. This makes fashion both imprecise and unpredictable.
Evolution as Rebellion
When considering practical tasks, the goal of evolution is to improve the quality of results, reduce the amount of effort, or some combination of the two. The amount of effort is largely moot to fashion (bargain shoppers place fashion firmly in the back seat), but the quality of results is key: the fashionable shopper wants to achieve a favorable impression on others.
The safest way to achieve a favorable impression is merely to imitate what others are doing, and this is the behavior of most consumers who are not attempting to stand out, but merely to fit in. These individuals do not cause fashion to evolve, and in many ways their behavior results in preventing evolution - anyone who does anything different to the rest of the herd is to be ridiculed, and their rebellion against tradition is to be put down simply because it is different.
The fashion-forward individual who means to create a positive impression by standing out from the crowd, thereby getting attention and earning esteem, is in a very basic sense a rebel against tradition and standards. They are not merely a nonconformist, who is indifferent to the opinion of others, but a rebel who means to change the opinion of others by their behavior. The rebel becomes a revolutionary when his campaign succeeds and his change is accepted ... and then becomes a champion of conformity if he chooses to defend the change once it has been implemented.
The Risk of Rebellion
An individual who consciously defies tradition, whether as a nonconformist or a rebel, takes on a risk: he may be attacked or at least ridiculed by conformists for undermining their standard. This threat is balanced against the reward of succeeding in his rebellion and unseating the conformists, becoming the new champion of fashion, and gaining the esteem of that position.
In general, to take the lead one must move fashion forward - to depart from what is the present normal and enter new territory, which is generally truly novel in that it is a break from the immediate present and the recent past. (Granted, there is a "retro" tendency in fashion to reach back to a previous time and recycle trends and tastes - but the reach must be significant. A person who imitates fashions of last year or the year before isn't "retro" but merely "outdated.")
Again, the difference between the nonconformist and the rebel is that the nonconformist is indifferent to the opinions of others, whereas the rebel means to change them: the rebel wants followers. The first step in gaining followers is in choosing a change that other people will follow rather than ridicule - and this may be the reason fashions evolve slowly, as a radical departure from the norm is dramatic and threatening, and easier to ridicule than consider for adoption. Very few rebels have the influence and charisma to sell a radical change.
The Evolution of Fashion
In practical concerns, the acceptance of change is based on visible results: others workers recognize that a rebel who has changed his behavior is achieving better results, incurring less cost, or both. The problem with predicting fashion is that there is much subjectivity as to whether a change is "better" and its outcome is not known until it meets with approval.
This makes evolution difficult: the rebel must risk his esteem in practice in order to determine whether he has sufficient esteem to get others to adopt the changes he proposes. It is in that sense a gamble, and one that will result in a loss if it is not successful, as there is little forgiveness for an earnest effort that leads in failure - any failure diminishes esteem.
And so the rebel takes the risk of making a change with little certainty that the change will be respected and adopted by others. If the risk meets with the acceptance of some - the few informal leaders with influence - then it will likely be accepted by others.
Predicting Evolution
It follows that the first step in predicting the evolution of fashion is to keep an eye on the nonconformists - to determine if they are rebels or mere nonconformists.
The second step in predicting evolution is to assess whether the nature of change that a rebel is proposing will be amenable to others, specifically those who hold unusual influence.
The third step is to witness whether others actually adopt the change proposed by the rebel. This is "arguable" is because at this point, it is no longer an act of prediction, but one of observation, and it may already be too late to intervene or capitalize on the knowledge of where fashion is headed.
The fourth step, also arguable, is to determine whether a fashion is spreading from the small number of individuals to the mass market. One who uses this method is very likely to be well behind the curve and unable to react swiftly enough to capitalize.
The fifth step is a repetition of the first, which is to recognize that the change has become a new norm, and that it is time to look to signals of nonconformity to recognize the "next thing" given that the present one has run its course.
Fashion and Practicality
At the onset of this meditation, I sought to differentiate fashion from practical concerns - but it seems to be that having considered the evolution, it would be worthwhile to move back from fashion to practicality.
Practical changes, intended to achieve functional and measurable results, likely follow the exact same pattern - but are based on standards that are more rational and easier to observe. Given that, an individual or firm who wishes to keep pace, or even to take the lead, would do well to consider the evolution of fashion.
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